Two new regimes landed in 48 hours. Thursday gave us Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC as Fed Chair — and his statement effectively retired the rate-cut put markets had priced for most of the year. Overnight, a separate Trump administration announcement reopened the Strait of Hormuz and pulled US gasoline back under $4. Higher policy rates and lower oil pull in opposite directions on the same tape, which is why Friday is the third data point in an argument the market still hasn’t settled. The Warsh era is being priced into bonds. The Hormuz peace dividend is being priced into oil. Equities are getting tugged by both.

What moved overnight

US indexes are trying to claw back Thursday’s hawkish reset. S&P 500 sits near 7,500 with Nasdaq composite around 26,517 and Dow 51,564. The 10-year yield is back to 4.45% after a sharp post-Warsh sell-off Bloomberg flagged in its “Treasuries rebound after Warsh’s debut stoked selloff” tape, with the 30-year at 4.90%. VIX is calm at 16.4 — which is itself a signal: the equity tape isn’t fully pricing the bond-market repricing yet.

The single-name story is rotation, not directional. TSM +6.9% and INTC +10.6% are leading an AI-chip rebuild after Thursday’s shake; Nasdaq futures climb on it overnight. ACN -18.0% is the carnage print — Accenture’s revenue miss and guidance cut hit one of the most-owned consulting names in client portfolios. LMT -4.0% is the cleanest read on the geopolitical regime: defense names are unwinding the Iran-conflict premium baked in since spring. WTI back to pre-Iran-war levels around $75.50 per WSJ live tracking, BTC sits near $63K, and DXY at 100.83 — calm currency, restless rates.

Trending in markets right now

The dominant conversation online is the “Warsh era” framing — investor discussions are circling whether nearly half of the FOMC signalling a 2026 hike means the rate-cut bet just died, or whether Warsh is bluffing to anchor inflation expectations into a cooler economy. Google search interest in Warsh hike and Fed rate path spiked through Thursday afternoon and is still climbing pre-open. The counter-narrative is the Hormuz peace dividend — search interest in gas prices and oil prices is also surging, with retail conversations split between treating the de-escalation as a clean buy signal (MarketWatch’s framing) versus a one-day pop before higher rates bite the multiple.

The cross-source confirmation is on the chip cohort. TSM and INTC appear in Yahoo trending, retail social conversations, and Investor’s Business Daily’s “buy signal” call — three independent surfaces aligning on AI-chip rotation as the regime-bridging trade. Small-cap froth is also alive: BFLY +56% and CAST +57% on no clean catalyst, which historically appears late-cycle when liquidity is flowing despite the headline risk-off. For the underlying price action behind the chatter, see today’s Movers recap and the live trending board.

Three things to watch today

Fed speakers and Warsh follow-through. Any Fed governor walking back the hawkish tilt would tell us Wednesday was Warsh anchoring, not consensus. Silence would tell us the FOMC is closing ranks. The 2-year yield is the cleanest signal — a hold above 4.50% means the bond market believes him.

AI-chip cohort follow-through. TSM and INTC strength sustaining into the close confirms the rotation thesis. A fade by lunchtime suggests Thursday’s bounce was short-covering, not new capital. NVDA, AVGO, and AMD are the tell — if they decouple lower while TSM holds, the rotation is supply-chain-specific, not a broad AI re-rate.

Oil into the weekend. WTI cracking sub-$60 with the Strait fully reopened would resolve half the inflation argument Warsh just opened up — cheaper energy gives the doves room to push back. A bounce back above $65 on any Iran-deal wobble would tell us the geopolitical premium isn’t gone, just dormant.

Bottom line

Two regimes in 48 hours, and the tape is honestly priced for neither. Watch where the marginal dollar goes — into chips means the market believes rate hikes are survivable; into defensives means it doesn’t. The 2-year yield is the resolution variable. If it holds 4.50%+ with TSM still green, the market is rebuilding under the new Fed regime. If it cracks below 4.40% on any growth wobble, the rate-cut trade comes back faster than anyone expects. Don’t pre-commit. Today is reaction, not initiation.