- Cool July PPI (flat vs +0.2% expected) cleared the runway for the S&P 500 to close at a fresh record — chip stocks did most of the pulling.
- Every bearish note that got attention Wednesday was pointing at the AI trade: Steve Eisman flagged an 'Achilles' heel', BofA sent a blunt Nvidia warning, Cisco lost 9% despite beating and raising, and Cerebras stumbled on mixed results.
- With NVDA earnings (Aug 26) and Jackson Hole (Aug 27–29) roughly two weeks out, the market is racing higher into the two catalysts that will actually resolve the argument.
Cool wholesale-price data paved the way for a new S&P record last night. Every bear you heard afterwards was pointing at the same trade that got it there. The S&P 500 closed at 7,799 — a fresh high — after July PPI came in flat versus the 0.2% rise economists expected. Chip stocks did most of the pulling: SanDisk ran +13%, CoreWeave and Super Micro rode AI-beat momentum, and Workday was halted multiple times on a Silver Lake takeover report. But you had to look past the tape to notice that the loudest concern of the day was concentrated on the very thing driving it.
What moved overnight
The S&P 500 added 0.65% to 7,798.99 — a fresh record high per CNBC’s session recap. Nasdaq climbed 0.81% to 26,803, the Dow added 0.13% to 53,840, and the Russell 2000 tacked on a modest 0.24% to 3,053. The 10-year yield eased about 4bp to 4.64% on the cool PPI print, consistent with a market re-testing the “one more cut” trade. VIX sat at 14.6 — call that complacency or call it belief the Fed backdrop is stable; both readings fit.
Single-name catalysts told the sharper story. Workday soared 18% and was halted multiple times on a report that Silver Lake is in advanced talks to take it private. SanDisk jumped 13% as Wall Street rolled out new price targets. Cisco fell 9% despite beating earnings and raising forward guidance — a genuinely good print sold hard because the multiple had already priced the beat. Cerebras slumped as mixed quarterly results tested the AI growth narrative, and Databricks quietly crossed the tape at a $190 billion private valuation on a fresh $5 billion round — a reminder that AI infrastructure capital is still very much available for the ones deep enough into the stack.
Trending in markets right now
The dominant conversation online is that the AI trade is now doing all the work — and the loudest voices are hedging it. Bank of America sent a blunt note to Nvidia investors that has been widely circulated. Steve Eisman — of Big Short fame — said he sees an “Achilles’ heel” in the AI boom. Cisco’s price action tells the same story from a different angle: a good print got sold nine points because whatever the guide added on infrastructure spend was not enough for how much the multiple had already priced in. And Cerebras, a much smaller name, tripped on mixed results and got treated as a canary.
Retail chatter is fixated on whether NVDA’s Aug 26 print is the moment the “beat-and-still-sell” pattern comes for the biggest name too. Meanwhile Google search interest is surging in Workday — the trading halts and the takeover headline broke through to a much wider audience than the usual enterprise-software crowd. Cross-source signal: SanDisk shows up on Yahoo trending, in MarketWatch’s headline stack, and in the Google News stock feed — a broadening chip rally that reaches beyond the obvious AI leaders. For price-action recap by cap tier, see /movers; for the live scroll of what readers are clicking, /trending.
Three things to watch today
- July Retail Sales (8:30am ET Friday): The last piece of consumer hard data before the pre-Jackson-Hole quiet period tightens. A hot print alongside yesterday’s cool PPI is the “immaculate disinflation” trade the bulls need; a soft one revives the “growth is rolling over” argument that’s been quietly sidelined.
- Preliminary Michigan Sentiment (10am ET Friday): The 1-year and 5–10 year inflation-expectations sub-indices matter more than the headline number. Any sign consumers are re-anchoring higher would complicate the cut-path narrative that just powered a new record.
- The Aug 26–29 catalyst cluster: With Nvidia reporting after the close on Aug 26 and Jackson Hole running Aug 27–29, the next two weeks are a race into the two events that will actually resolve today’s tension. Anything that has to be in position before then is being put on now.
Bottom line
The tape said “record high” last night. The commentary said “watch the exit.” Both can be true at the same time — and usually are, going into the kind of catalyst cluster the late-August calendar is about to deliver. Our posture: watch what the AI names do on days where the cool-inflation trade is doing the pulling, not just on days where they lead themselves. If chips can rally on a PPI print rather than only on their own headlines, the rotation broadens. If today gives back the record without a clear negative catalyst, the “concentrated in one trade” concern the bears are voicing has price action to back it up. The number that resolves today’s open question: whether S&P 500 breadth — advance-decline, not just the index — makes a new high alongside the price.
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