S&P futures sit +0.33% and Nasdaq futures +0.64% after a tech-led close that pushed the S&P and Nasdaq to fresh highs, with the VIX easing to 16.88 and US-Iran peace-deal chatter taking the air out of crude. The setup tilts risk-on, but with a sector rotation story underneath — AI capex bid, energy under pressure, and the Dow lagging the rest of the tape.

Previous Session Close

The Nasdaq 100 led the close at +1.78%, with the Russell 2000 right behind at +1.89% — a combination that says risk appetite extended down the cap stack rather than concentrating in mega-cap defensives. The S&P 500 added +0.66% to 750.6. The Dow was the standalone laggard at -0.17%, dragged by what looks like an energy and healthcare drag (XLE -2.76%, XLV -0.92%). VIX settled at 16.88, down 0.76% — that’s a sub-20 print but well off the sub-15 complacency zone. Technology (XLK +2.63%) was the runaway sector winner, with Industrials (+1.47%) and Materials (+1.39%) confirming the cyclical-plus-AI bid. Energy was the clear drag.

Overnight Futures & Global Read

All four US futures are green pre-market: S&P +0.33%, Nasdaq +0.64%, Dow +0.32%, Russell +0.77%. The Russell leading futures again is consistent with yesterday’s small-cap risk-on tone carrying through the overnight. Headlines flag US-Iran talks as the dominant macro driver, with one piece arguing the market hasn’t fully priced a peace outcome and that European stocks could benefit. That same setup is showing up in the energy complex — futures green, oil heavy.

Commodity & FX Setup

Gold is off 0.49% to $4,478 — modest profit-taking, consistent with equities risk-on but not a full unwind of the safe-haven bid. WTI is the standout, down 3.79% to $90.33, repricing the geopolitical risk premium as US-Iran headlines crossed; that flows directly into XLE weakness and is a net positive for transports, consumer disc, and inflation expectations into the open. Copper is roughly flat at +0.09% — the growth proxy isn’t confirming a cyclical breakout. Silver is down 2.06%, tracking the precious-metals unwind. DXY is essentially unchanged at 99.12 with EUR/USD flat and GBP/USD off 0.44%, so this is not a dollar-driven session — it’s a commodity and rates story.

Catalyst Watch

Three items from the wire deserve attention into the open. First, the US-Iran talks thread — headlines explicitly link the overnight futures lift to peace-deal progress, and any walk-back of that narrative would hit oil-short positioning hard and could lift XLE off lows. Second, the AI capex story keeps compounding: a rival joining Micron in the trillion-dollar club, a fund manager rotating from Nvidia into the “AI space frontier,” and a 99%-of-CEOs-planning-AI-layoffs survey all reinforce the same capex-plus-productivity thesis driving XLK. Third, Jamie Dimon’s “too much exuberance” warning — alongside Michael Burry’s correction call — is the bear note in an otherwise green tape. Worth watching whether it gets any pricing in late-session.

Bottom Line

Risk-on bias into the open with a tech-and-small-cap lean, but the Dimon-Burry chorus and a VIX still in the high-16s argue against full chase. The level worth watching is the S&P 500 at 750.6 — a clean hold above yesterday’s close keeps the breakout intact; a fade back through it on no new catalyst would validate the exuberance warning. The single most important driver today is the US-Iran headline tape — it’s pricing both the oil leg and the broad risk leg simultaneously. Luna3’s read: respect the trend, fade the chase.

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