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Futures are green across the board as Wall Street enters June riding a 9-week rally that delivered record closes in May — but oil’s 3.6% spike on fresh US-Iran hostilities and a quietly rising VIX suggest Monday’s open comes with an asterisk.

Previous Session Close

The S&P 500 added 0.25% to close at record highs, with the Nasdaq 100 leading at +0.37% and the Dow gaining 0.74%. The Russell 2000, however, slipped 0.55% — a divergence worth noting as small-caps often signal risk appetite better than large-cap benchmarks. The VIX rose 2.94% to 15.77: still comfortably below the 20 fear threshold but no longer declining into the rally, which fits the “volatility spasm” thesis circulating in analyst notes heading into June.

Technology (XLK +2.23%) carried the session, driven by Nvidia’s new AI product cycle and Arm’s positioning as a derivative beneficiary. Financials (XLF +0.60%) added support. On the other side, Energy (XLE −1.16%) was the heaviest drag, with Healthcare (XLV −0.93%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY −0.97%) also red. That tech-up, cyclicals-down split is a narrow leadership pattern that bears watching if it persists into June.

Overnight Futures & Global Read

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7,616 (+0.26%), Dow futures at 51,340 (+0.51%), and Nasdaq futures at 30,470 (+0.21%). All three point to a modestly higher open, extending the May close. The Russell at 2,922 (−0.09%) is the outlier — small-caps still can’t find a bid. The Dow’s relative outperformance in futures hints that the Berkshire Hathaway takeover announcement is pulling blue-chip flows, while the broader tech complex digests the Nvidia-Arm-Intel-AMD reshuffling.

Commodity & FX Setup

Oil is the standout: WTI crude jumped 3.58% to $90.49 after fresh US-Iran military exchanges. That’s the kind of move that reverses Friday’s energy-sector weakness fast — watch XLE at the open for a gap higher. Copper surged 2.86% to $6.54, a strong growth-proxy signal that contradicts the small-cap weakness and suggests industrial demand expectations remain firm.

Gold dipped 0.45% to $4,540, a mild risk-on lean — investors aren’t rushing to safe havens despite geopolitical escalation. The DXY edged up 0.15% to 99.06 while USD/JPY pushed to 159.50, keeping the yen-carry trade stretched. The 30-year yield ticking above 4.99% puts it within reach of 5.00% — a psychological level that could pressure rate-sensitive sectors if breached.

Catalyst Watch

US-Iran escalation: Oil’s 3.6% overnight move is the session’s wildcard. If headlines intensify during the US trading day, energy names rip higher while consumer discretionary and airlines face headwinds from the crude spike. If tensions de-escalate, that WTI premium unwinds quickly.

Nvidia ecosystem repricing: Nvidia’s new AI superchip is being called a game-changer, but Intel and AMD sold off harder than Nvidia rallied on the PC side. Monday’s trade will show whether the market treats this as Nvidia consolidating dominance or an AI rising-tide that eventually lifts the broader semiconductor complex.

Berkshire’s first post-Buffett acquisition: The headline alone generates institutional attention. The target and deal terms will set the tone for whether the post-Buffett capital deployment strategy shifts Berkshire’s risk profile — and by extension, the value/quality cohort it anchors.

Bottom Line

Bias into the open is cautiously risk-on: futures are green, copper confirms growth appetite, and May’s record close gives momentum traders a clean trend to lean into. The level to watch is S&P 500 futures holding above 7,600 — a clean first-of-month bid above that floor would confirm June continuation. The single most important driver today is oil: a WTI close above $91 turns the Iran premium from a headline into a positioning event, and that reshuffles sector leadership for the week ahead.

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