Previous Session Close

The Nasdaq 100 did the heavy lifting Monday, ripping 3.14% higher while the S&P 500 added 0.54%, the Dow gained 1.05%, and the Russell 2000 tacked on 0.82%. Tech led the charge but breadth was solid — only Healthcare (XLV, −0.18%) closed red among the major sectors. Materials (XLB, +1.87%) topped the leaderboard, with Financials (XLF, +1.37%) close behind.

The VIX collapsed 8.6% to 16.16, well inside the comfort zone below 20. That’s a market pricing in continuation, not hedging for trouble. Sub-16 VIX with broad sector green is about as clean a risk-on setup as you get heading into a Fed week.

Overnight Futures & Global Read

Futures are extending the bid across the board. S&P 500 futs sit at 7,633 (+0.95%), Nasdaq futs at 30,970 (+1.34%), Dow futs at 52,170 (+0.83%), and Russell futs at 2,994 (+0.88%). The gap-up is uniform — no single-name distortion pulling the tape.

The overnight tone reads like positioning ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. Money is flowing into equities, not out, which tells you the market expects Warsh’s first meeting as chair to land dovish or at least neutral. Nobody is de-risking here.

Commodity & FX Setup

Oil is the standout move — WTI cratered 4.28% to $77.29 after Goldman Sachs cut its price target, citing that the “peace deal is in the price.” That’s a direct hit to the energy sector’s earnings outlook. XLE gained 0.75% Monday but that was before this leg lower; watch for a giveback at the open.

Gold is firmer at $4,360 (+0.74%) and silver punched to $70.53 (+0.66%), its best opening level in over a week per overnight prints. Both metals are catching a bid from the weaker dollar — DXY slipped to 99.58 (−0.17%) and remains below the psychologically important 100 handle. Copper at $6.498 (+0.24%) is flat, offering no strong signal on the global growth read. USD/JPY grinding to 160.3 keeps yen-carry trades alive, which historically supports risk assets.

Catalyst Watch

Warsh’s first Fed meeting. This is the session’s centre of gravity. Markets are drifting into the two-day FOMC meeting that begins today, with the rate decision and press conference on Wednesday. Kevin Warsh is chairing for the first time — any shift in tone or dot-plot language around the path of cuts will set the tone for the rest of the week. Positioning into the meeting is clearly risk-on, which raises the stakes if the statement disappoints.

SpaceX valuation repricing. An overnight price spike pushed SpaceX past Amazon as the fifth-largest US company by valuation. That’s not directly tradable for most investors, but it puts a spotlight on the private-to-public valuation gap in aerospace and defence — watch names like Rocket Lab (RKLB) and L3Harris for sympathy flows.

Goldman’s oil call. The peace-deal repricing thesis gives institutional cover to rotate out of crude. If WTI holds below $78 through the US session, XLE could underperform the broader tape despite the futures bid.

Bottom Line

The setup into Tuesday’s open is unambiguously risk-on — futures green across all four indices, VIX parked at 16, dollar weak, metals bid. The S&P at 7,633 on futs is the level to watch; a hold above Monday’s close confirms the pre-Fed positioning trade has legs. The single most important driver is how the market interprets the start of Warsh’s first FOMC meeting — everything else is noise until Wednesday’s statement drops. Luna3 sees a tape that wants to go higher but is one hawkish surprise away from a fast unwind.

Read next: Market Pulse · VIX Term Structure · What Is a Bond?