Previous Session Close

Friday’s session delivered a broad sell-off with a clear growth-stock accent. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.50%, the sharpest decline of the four majors, while the S&P 500 fell 0.99% and the Dow shed 0.74%. The Russell 2000 held up relatively well at -0.52%, a tell that the selling was concentrated in large-cap tech and consumer discretionary (-1.62%) rather than a broad risk liquidation.

The VIX closed at 18.19 — notably, it actually fell 3.09% on the session despite the equity weakness. That divergence matters: the options market isn’t pricing panic, just a measured de-risking ahead of a heavy earnings week. Energy was the lone sector in the green at +1.16%, a clean defensive rotation into cash-flow-heavy names as growth multiples got marked down.

Overnight Futures & Global Read

Futures are signaling a recovery open. Nasdaq futures lead at +0.77%, with S&P futures up 0.35% near 7,524 and Russell futures adding 0.40%. The Dow lags at +0.22%, consistent with the bounce being growth-led — a direct reversal of Friday’s underperformance pattern.

The setup reads as dip-buying rather than new conviction. With Big Tech earnings on deck this week, traders are resetting positions after Friday’s de-risk. The futures bid strengthened as oil turned lower overnight, easing one input cost pressure heading into the open.

Commodity & FX Setup

Metals are the standout. Silver surged 1.98% and copper rallied 1.61% — the copper move is a quiet growth-confidence signal that cuts against Friday’s equity weakness. Gold added 0.33% to $4,026, steady accumulation that reads more as real-rate positioning than outright fear-buying.

WTI crude slipped 1.09% to $81.59, which gives the energy sector a headwind after Friday’s outperformance but relieves pressure on the broader inflation narrative. Goldman’s economist flagging that “inflation is broadening out” makes the oil pullback a welcome offset for rate-sensitive sectors.

The dollar index is flat at 100.8. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and cable are all within a few basis points of unchanged — FX markets are in holding mode ahead of the earnings deluge, not positioning for a macro break in either direction.

Catalyst Watch

Big Tech earnings framing. Multiple headlines are setting the stage: strategists are calling for the “Magnificent Seven” label to be retired, while two major banks are split on whether chip stocks are a buy here. Chipmakers are heading for strong profit gains, but expectations are high enough that “good” may not be “good enough.” This debate will be the week’s dominant price driver.

AI infrastructure spend. Hut 8 signed a $9.8 billion AI data center lease, fully commercializing its Texas campus. That deal puts a concrete dollar figure on the capex cycle and could support sentiment for infrastructure and power names even as the pure-play AI trade gets questioned.

Inflation broadening. Goldman’s call that inflation is broadening beyond shelter and services is the kind of narrative that can shift rate expectations mid-week if any data confirms it. Watch how bond markets respond — the 10-year yield already dipped to 4.54%.

Bottom Line

Bias is mildly risk-on for Monday’s open, but it’s a positioning bounce ahead of the real event — Big Tech earnings. S&P futures near 7,524 are the level to watch: a hold above Friday’s close confirms the dip-buy, a fade back through it says the de-risking has more room to run. The single most important driver this week is whether chipmaker guidance validates the AI capex cycle or forces the rotation Goldman is already pitching. Luna3 will be tracking the sector dispersion closely as results roll in.

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