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Futures are clawing back a fraction of Thursday’s losses, but with the Nasdaq barely green overnight and the 10-year yield knocking on 4.70%, this bounce needs to prove itself at the open.

Previous Session Close

Thursday was ugly across the board. The S&P 500 dropped 1.23%, the Nasdaq 100 led losses at -1.90%, and the Dow shed 1.00%. The Russell 2000 held up relatively well at -0.58%, suggesting the selling was concentrated in large-cap growth rather than a wholesale risk-off move. The VIX climbed to 18.76 — elevated but still below the 20 threshold that typically signals genuine fear. It reads more like repricing than panic.

The sector tape told a clear story. Consumer Discretionary was gutted, falling 4.61% — the kind of single-session drawdown that usually reflects an earnings miss or guidance cut from a heavyweight constituent. On the other side, Industrials gained 1.73% and Healthcare added 1.26%, pointing to a rotation into defensives and real-economy cyclicals. Technology dropped 1.01%, dragging the Nasdaq lower, while Energy eked out a 0.30% gain despite weakness in crude.

Overnight Futures & Global Read

S&P 500 futures are up 0.22% at 7,461, Dow futures lead at +0.39%, and Russell futures are adding 0.45%. The Nasdaq is the laggard at +0.11%, which tracks — when tech leads the selloff, it tends to be the last to recover. The Russell’s relative strength both yesterday and overnight suggests small-cap buyers are stepping in, consistent with the headline theme that market veterans see “a classic buying opportunity” in the current geopolitical backdrop. Asian markets have been outperforming international peers this year, per overnight coverage, and that bid may be providing a floor under global risk appetite heading into the US open.

Commodity & FX Setup

Gold is firming at $4,063, up 0.42%, with silver outpacing at +1.53% — a combination that typically reflects real-rate hedging rather than pure fear buying. Copper is up 0.83% at $6.358, a mild positive signal for the growth outlook and one that aligns with the Industrials bid from Thursday’s session.

The standout is oil. WTI dropped 2.48% to $89.90 even as headlines reference Iran tensions and a “dividend stock that stands to benefit from the Iran war.” The disconnect between geopolitical risk and crude pricing is telling — supply is loose enough that the feared oil spike “never showed up,” as one headline puts it. That takes some inflation pressure off the table but limits Energy sector upside from here.

The DXY is flat at 101.4, essentially treading water. USD/JPY pushing 163.8 (+0.42%) suggests the carry trade is alive, while GBP/USD softening -0.37% may reflect UK-specific flows.

Catalyst Watch

Three items from the headline stack worth tracking into the session. First, Verizon reported earnings that showed the company “is no longer a hunting ground” — its stock rose, and this could set tone for telecom and dividend-heavy names at the open. Second, the NovaGold surge of 10.3% on a $4.2 billion Donlin Mine takeover could pull gold miners higher and reinforce the precious metals bid. Third, the housing-and-Treasury-yields narrative — the argument that fixing housing for under-40s “could trigger 10% Treasury yields” — lands at a moment when the 10-year is already pressing 4.70% and the 30-year has breached 5.17%. Any bond market sensitivity today will hit rate-sensitive sectors hard.

Bottom Line

The setup leans cautiously constructive — futures are green, breadth indicators (Russell outperforming) suggest the selloff wasn’t structural, and oil’s decline eases one inflation input. But the 10-year yield at 4.70% is the leash on any rally. Watch whether the S&P can reclaim and hold the 7,460-7,480 zone through the first hour — that’s where Thursday’s sellers stepped in, and it’ll tell you whether this bounce has legs or fades into another leg lower. The single biggest driver today is rates: if the long end keeps climbing, tech stays under pressure regardless of futures color at the open.

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