“`html

Futures are pointing sharply higher across the board after the US and Iran paused strikes over the weekend, sending oil down more than 6% and unlocking a broad risk-on bid heading into what Wall Street is flagging as a packed week.

Previous Session Close

Friday’s session split cleanly along a tech versus everything-else line. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.10% gain while the Dow added 0.48%, but the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.12% as technology (XLK -1.44%) weighed heavily. The Russell 2000 slipped 0.31%, giving back some of its recent small-cap momentum. On the positive side, Materials (XLB +1.93%) led all sectors, followed by Financials (XLF +0.86%) and Healthcare (XLV +0.70%) — a rotation trade that favored cyclicals over growth.

The VIX fell 4.95% to 17.66, sitting in the neutral band between complacency and fear. That decline suggests the options market was already pricing in lower tail risk heading into the weekend — a read that the overnight futures move now validates.

Overnight Futures & Global Read

All four index futures are firmly green. S&P futures are up 0.93% to 7,516, Nasdaq futures lead at +1.49%, Dow futures gain 1.10%, and Russell futures add 1.22%. The broad-based lift — with small-caps participating — points to genuine risk appetite rather than a narrow mega-cap chase. The geopolitical de-escalation between the US and Iran is the primary catalyst, removing an overhang that had kept energy and defense positioning elevated. Chinese markets also drew attention overnight after chip maker CXMT surged fivefold in its Shanghai debut, reinforcing the semiconductor theme on both sides of the Pacific.

Commodity & FX Setup

Oil is the headline mover. WTI crude cratered 6.54% to $83.47 — the largest single-session drop in two months — as the US-Iran strike pause removed the geopolitical risk premium that had been baked into energy prices. That’s a direct headwind for XLE, which managed only a 0.40% gain on Friday and now faces downside pressure at the open.

Gold climbed 0.85% to $4,102, an unusual pairing with a risk-on equity tape that suggests buyers are hedging the busy macro calendar ahead rather than positioning for outright fear. Copper added 1.28%, reinforcing the growth-proxy signal. Silver rose 1.46%. The DXY slipped 0.15% to 101.3, keeping the dollar on the back foot and providing a mild tailwind for multinationals and commodity exporters.

Catalyst Watch

Three threads to track as the week opens. First, the oil collapse reshuffles the energy trade — a sustained move below $85 WTI eases inflation expectations and could pull forward rate-cut pricing, which the 10-year yield’s 0.51% decline to 4.679% is already hinting at. Second, CXMT’s blockbuster Shanghai IPO puts the China semiconductor buildout back in the spotlight; watch for sympathy moves in US-listed chip equipment names. Third, multiple headlines flag this as a “busy week” for Wall Street — the market is bracing for a heavy earnings and data calendar, and Monday’s session will set the positioning tone for the rest of it.

Bottom Line

The bias going into Monday’s open is clearly risk-on. Futures breadth is strong, VIX is fading, and the geopolitical de-escalation gives buyers room to press. The level to watch is Nasdaq futures holding their overnight gains through the opening hour — Friday’s 1.12% tech sell-off means the rebound needs follow-through to be credible. The single biggest driver for the session is whether oil stabilises near $83 or continues lower, because that cascading effect on inflation expectations and rate pricing will set the tone for the entire week. Luna3 will be tracking the open in real time.

Read next: Market Pulse · VIX Term Structure · What Is a Bond?