Previous Session Close

The S&P 500 closed at fresh all-time highs, gaining 1.80% as broad-based buying lifted all but two of the major sector ETFs. The Nasdaq 100 led with a 3.40% surge, powered by a near-5% rip in technology (XLK +4.98%) — the kind of single-session move that resets positioning. The Russell 2000 kept pace at +1.85%, and the Dow added 1.73%.

VIX ticked up to 16.61 despite the rally — a subtle tell. When volatility rises on a green day, it typically reflects demand for upside calls rather than panic hedging, but it also means options markets are pricing wider ranges ahead. Energy (XLE -0.46%) and healthcare (XLV -0.09%) were the only sectors in the red, a classic rotation into growth and away from defensives.

Overnight Futures & Global Read

Futures are extending the rally. S&P 500 futures sit at 7,798, up 0.42%, while Dow futures add 0.40%. Nasdaq futures are the relative laggard at +0.16%, suggesting some profit-taking after yesterday’s tech-heavy session. Russell futures are up 0.25%, keeping the small-cap bid alive.

The setup points to a gap-up open, but the Nasdaq underperformance overnight is worth watching — when the index that led hardest cools first, it can signal early rotation rather than broad weakness. The tape will need confirmation from tech earnings reactions in the first 30 minutes.

Commodity & FX Setup

Gold is the standout overnight, surging 3.31% to $4,231 — its sharpest single-session move in weeks. Silver followed at +2.96%. This kind of metals bid alongside record equity highs usually points to one thing: dollar weakness. The DXY is down to 99.74, sliding 0.15%, while EUR/USD pushes to 1.155 and GBP/USD to 1.348.

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 1.26% to 4.627%, and the 30-year fell to 5.19%. Falling yields plus a weak dollar is a tailwind for growth stocks and materials (XLB +1.94% last session). WTI crude at $76.07 (+0.40%) is steady — the headline that a Hormuz deal may be close could cap oil’s upside if it gains traction. Copper at $6.65 (+0.49%) continues to signal no imminent growth scare.

Catalyst Watch

Eli Lilly’s 48% revenue beat is the earnings story of the week. GLP-1 demand continues to accelerate, and the stock’s reaction will set the tone for healthcare and biotech names today. This is a sector that closed flat last session — a Lilly-led move could pull the entire group.

AMD’s 10% post-earnings drop will test whether yesterday’s tech rally has legs or was concentrated in names that didn’t report. The “not an exceptional result” framing from analysts suggests the bar for AI-adjacent semiconductors has been raised sharply.

SpaceX sliding despite a Starlink-driven revenue beat adds another data point to the pattern: beating estimates isn’t enough when valuations already price in perfection. Arista Networks jumping on earnings provides the counter-example — execution still gets rewarded in networking infrastructure.

Bottom Line

The bias into the open is risk-on with caveats. S&P futures at 7,798 imply a new intraday high attempt — the level to watch is whether the index can hold above yesterday’s close of 771.3 (ETF basis) through the first hour. The single most important driver today is whether the post-earnings divergence between winners (Lilly, Arista) and losers (AMD, SpaceX) broadens the rally or concentrates it further. Gold’s 3%+ move and falling yields suggest the bond market sees something equities are shrugging off — that tension doesn’t resolve quietly. Luna3 will be tracking sector rotation patterns as the session develops.

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