I now have enough information to write the post. Let me compile what I’ve confirmed:

**Earnings confirmed for the week:**
– **Tuesday Jul 22:** Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), Texas Instruments (TXN), IBM, ServiceNow (NOW), GE Vernova (GEV), Philip Morris (PM), AT&T (T), CME Group, CSX
– **Wednesday Jul 23:** RTX, T-Mobile (TMUS), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Union Pacific (UNP), Blackstone (BX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Comcast (CMCSA), Honeywell (HON), Intel (INTC), SAP, Newmont (NEM)

**Economic data:**
– **Thursday Jul 24:** New home sales (June), weekly jobless claims
– **Thursday Jul 24:** S&P Global flash PMIs (July — standard release is 4th Thursday)
– **Wednesday Jul 23:** ECB rate decision (global spillover)

**FOMC:** Jul 28-29 — the following week (not this week, but looming)

Here’s the post:

The setup into Jul 20–Jul 24, 2026

US markets enter the week bruised. SPY closed at $743.30, down 1.5% on the week, but the real damage was concentrated in tech — QQQ dropped 4.2% as the semiconductor selloff accelerated, putting the SOX index on the edge of a 20% drawdown from recent highs. The VIX jumped 24.9% to 18.77, its sharpest weekly move in months, signalling hedging demand is picking up. Small caps held up better with IWM off just 0.7% to $294, and financials were the only sector in green at +1.0%. The rotation out of mega-cap tech and into cyclicals/value is the dominant theme carrying into this week — but earnings from the biggest names in the market will either confirm or challenge that rotation.

Jul 20–Jul 24, 2026 — the calendar

Tuesday, Jul 22 — The week’s single biggest day. Alphabet (GOOGL) reports after the close with Wall Street expecting ~$2.87 EPS on $116.5 billion revenue, up 21% year-over-year. Google Cloud growth (63% in Q1) and the AI capex trajectory are the variables that matter for the broader AI trade. Tesla (TSLA) also reports after the bell — expected revenue of $26.4 billion (+17.3%) and $0.54 EPS (+35%). GE Vernova, Philip Morris, AT&T, CME Group, Texas Instruments, IBM, ServiceNow, and CSX all report the same day. IBM and Texas Instruments are bellwethers for enterprise IT and analog semiconductors respectively — both report after the close.

Wednesday, Jul 23 — The ECB delivers its rate decision (global spillover — a dovish cut or hawkish hold will move EUR/USD and feed back into DXY). On the earnings side: RTX, T-Mobile, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Union Pacific, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, Freeport-McMoRan, Comcast, Honeywell, Intel, SAP, and Newmont. Intel is the name to watch given the SOX breakdown. Freeport-McMoRan and Newmont read on the commodities cycle (copper at $6.265 and gold at $4,019).

Thursday, Jul 24 — June new home sales data hits at 10:00am ET. Weekly initial jobless claims (last print: 208k, lowest in two months) provide the labour-market pulse. S&P Global flash PMIs for July (manufacturing + services) are expected — the prior June manufacturing read was 53.3, down from 54.0.

Looming: The FOMC meets Jul 28-29 the following week. No rate change is expected, but Chair Warsh’s framing of inflation vs growth risks will set the tone for August. Markets are pricing the setup, not the decision.

Levels and instruments to watch

SPY at $743.30 is the front line. The 740 zone is the 50-day moving average area for most short-term traders — a clean break below opens a re-test of 720-725. A hold and bounce above 745 would signal buyers defending the pullback. QQQ at $695.30 has already breached multiple support levels — if Alphabet and Tesla disappoint, 670 is the next logical demand zone. If they beat, the 710-720 recapture becomes the test.

VIX at 18.77 is elevated but not panicked. A move through 22-23 would indicate the selloff is broadening beyond semis. Below 16 would confirm the earnings season is calming nerves.

Oil’s +14.5% spike to $81.78 (WTI) is worth watching — if energy keeps running while tech bleeds, the XLE vs XLK spread widens further, reinforcing the rotation. DXY at 100.8 is flat and not a driver yet, but the ECB decision Wednesday could shift that.

The bias

Defensive lean. The setup is a market where VIX has repriced higher, the leading sector (tech, -5.5% on the week) is under distribution, and the earnings burden falls on the exact names that drove the rally. Alphabet and Tesla carry outsized weight — a miss from either likely accelerates the SOX-led unwind into broader indices. A beat from both could snap VIX back toward 15 and stabilise QQQ above 700.

The one thing that flips the bias to risk-on: Alphabet guiding cloud capex higher AND Tesla delivering upside on margins. That combination would tell the market the AI spend cycle is intact and the rotation was a healthy rebalancing, not a regime change. Without it, the path of least resistance through Friday is choppy-to-lower with sector dispersion widening.