Now I have all the confirmed catalysts. Let me write the post.
- July CPI on Wednesday is the week's single biggest catalyst — consensus expects headline inflation falling to 3.4% y/y, with core at 2.5%
- Treasury refunding auctions (3-Year, 10-Year, 30-Year) run Tuesday through Thursday alongside CPI and PPI — the 10Y yield at 4.66% will be tested from both sides
- Momentum favours risk-on after SPY's +3.5% week to fresh highs, but the inflation-data gauntlet and heavy supply could stall the rally if CPI surprises hot
The setup into Aug 10–Aug 14, 2026
US equities enter the week riding one of the strongest stretches of the year. SPY closed at $773.3, up +3.5% on the week and printing fresh record highs. QQQ led with a +5.1% gain to $723, powered by a tech sector (XLK +7.2%) that reclaimed leadership after last month’s rotation scare. IWM tracked at +3.6%, confirming broad participation rather than a narrow mega-cap move. The VIX collapsed to 14.9, down nearly 7% — a market that isn’t pricing tail risk heading into a week loaded with inflation data and Treasury supply. Gold’s +8.7% surge to $4,400 and silver’s +10.3% jump tell a parallel story: real-rate expectations are shifting, and the metals complex is front-running a dovish CPI print. Oil’s -7.7% slide to $78.18 adds a disinflationary tailwind to the macro backdrop.
Aug 10–Aug 14, 2026 — the calendar
Tuesday, Aug 12: The week opens with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (July reading, last at 97.4) and the Treasury’s 3-Year note auction. The RBA delivers its rate decision in the Asian session — a hold is consensus, but any hawkish pivot in the statement could ripple through the dollar and rates complex before New York opens. After the close, CoreWeave (CRWV) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) report — two names sitting at the centre of the AI infrastructure capex question. Sea Limited (SE) and On Holding (ONON) also report, giving reads on Southeast Asian digital and consumer discretionary demand.
Wednesday, Aug 13: The main event. July CPI lands at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast points to +0.1% m/m headline and +3.4% y/y, down from June’s 3.5%. Core CPI is projected at +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, which would mark the lowest annual core reading in over two years. A print at or below consensus would cement expectations for a September rate cut. The Treasury follows with its 10-Year note auction — with the 10Y yield sitting at 4.66%, demand at this level will signal whether the bond market agrees with the equity rally’s optimism. Cisco (CSCO) reports after the bell.
Thursday, Aug 14: July PPI and weekly jobless claims arrive together at 8:30 a.m. ET. PPI has been running cooler than CPI in recent months, and a continuation of that trend would reinforce the disinflation narrative. The 30-Year bond auction closes out the week’s refunding cycle — long-duration supply hitting a market already digesting two days of inflation data. Applied Materials (AMAT) reports after the close, with analysts expecting $3.36 EPS on $8.95B revenue. AMAT is the picks-and-shovels read on whether semiconductor capex is accelerating or plateauing.
Friday, Aug 15: July retail sales round out the data gauntlet. June’s +6.7% y/y print showed a consumer still spending, but the weekly Redbook index has slipped from 10.1% to 8.2% y/y — directionally softer, though still above trend. The preliminary August University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading follows at 10 a.m. ET; July’s final came in at 55.2, and the inflation expectations component will matter more than the headline number.
Levels and instruments to watch
SPY at $773 is now extended after a +3.5% week. The question is whether this level consolidates or pushes higher on a soft CPI. A hot print could retrace back toward the $750 area where the rally launched. QQQ at $723 is the momentum barometer — tech led last week’s move, and the AI earnings slate (CoreWeave, SMCI, Applied Materials, Cisco) will either validate or challenge that leadership.
The 10-Year yield at 4.66% is the fulcrum. A CPI miss to the downside could push it toward 4.50%, giving equities another leg. A surprise to the upside — especially in core services — would send it back above 4.75% and pressure the rate-sensitive trade. Watch how the 10-Year and 30-Year auctions clear: weak demand at these yields would signal that bond buyers want more term premium, regardless of what CPI says.
Gold at $4,400 after an 8.7% weekly surge is pricing in a soft CPI and a weakening dollar (DXY at 99.6). If CPI delivers, gold likely holds. If it doesn’t, the metal is vulnerable to a sharp pullback from overbought levels. USD/JPY at 157.7 is the other tell — yen strength would confirm a global rates repricing.
The bias
The setup leans risk-on. Breadth is strong (IWM +3.6% alongside mega-cap gains), volatility is compressed (VIX at 14.9), and the macro data is trending in the right direction for equities — inflation cooling, consumer spending holding, and oil prices falling. The AI earnings cohort (CoreWeave, SMCI, Cisco, Applied Materials) adds a growth catalyst on top of the macro backdrop.
The one thing that flips this: a core CPI print at 2.7% or higher. That would signal disinflation has stalled, pull September rate-cut odds sharply lower, and force a repricing across duration-sensitive assets — tech, homebuilders, small caps. With the VIX at 14.9, the market is not hedged for that scenario. The asymmetry favours continuation if CPI comes in soft, but the downside is unpriced if it doesn’t.
Get early access to Orbit
Orbit is Luna3.ai’s AI-augmented research engine. 12 algorithmic signals + a gradient-boosted ML model + an agentic LLM that reads each top pick’s filings and writes a daily thesis with conviction score and catalyst proximity. Three regimes, three playbooks — growth in expansion, defensives in late-cycle, recovery plays at panic bottoms. The 3 in Luna3.ai.
No spam. Unsubscribe any time.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!