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The setup into Aug 24–Aug 28, 2026

US markets enter the week of Aug 24–Aug 28 on the back foot. SPY closed at $765.70, down 1.4% on the week, while QQQ took a harder hit at $713.40, off 2.4% as technology (XLK –3.5%) led the selloff. IWM slipped 1.7% to $300. The damage was rotation, not panic — healthcare (XLV +4.3%), energy (XLE +2.8%), and materials (XLB +1.9%) all posted gains while industrials (XLI –3.4%) and tech dragged. Gold surged 6.9% to $4,681 and silver jumped 7.0% to $69.53, with the dollar index falling to 98.8 (–0.9%) as a Treasury buyback announcement accelerated the precious-metals bid. Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, announced Saturday after trade talks collapsed, add a fresh layer of uncertainty heading into Monday’s open.

Aug 24–Aug 28, 2026 — the calendar

Monday Aug 25 opens quiet. No tier-one US data, but markets will price in the weekend’s Canada-US tariff escalation — Ottawa set September 8 retaliatory levies on US steel, electronics, dairy, and agricultural equipment, matching Washington’s 50% duties “dollar for dollar.” The read-through for industrials and materials names with cross-border exposure starts here.

Tuesday Aug 26 brings New Home Sales for July at 10:00 a.m. ET and the 2-Year Note auction. Housing data has been a quiet pulse check on whether higher mortgage rates are finally biting.

Wednesday Aug 27 is the week’s heavyweight session. At 8:30 a.m.: the Q2 GDP second estimate (advance print was an annualised 1.5%, down from 2.1% in Q1), July durable goods orders (consensus +0.7%), and the Personal Income and Outlays report carrying Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The June Core PCE annual rate was 3.3%; the July monthly read is expected at +0.2%. Conference Board Consumer Confidence for August also drops at 10:00 a.m., following UMich sentiment’s slide to 51 from 55.2. Treasury auctions a 5-Year Note. After the close: NVIDIA, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike all report — three names that collectively define the AI infrastructure, enterprise software, and cybersecurity trade.

Thursday Aug 28 marks the first day of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Aug 28–30), themed “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Weekly initial jobless claims and the 7-Year Note auction are the data highlights. Best Buy and Dollar General report earnings — a consumer-spending temperature check at opposite ends of the income spectrum.

Friday Aug 29 is the headline event. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote, expected around 10:00 a.m. ET. The July FOMC minutes revealed a 9-3 vote — the widest split in decades — and Warsh has signalled he will address “long-term structural questions” rather than near-term guidance. But with 69% of fund managers expecting a neutral tone, neutral is already in the price. Any hawkish lean or hint that the hiking cycle isn’t finished will move rates and equities hard. Also Friday: the BLS publishes the preliminary benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls through March 2026, and UMich consumer sentiment (final August reading) drops at 10:00 a.m.

Levels and instruments to watch

SPY at $765.70 sits 1.4% below last week’s high. The 10-year yield at 4.738% (+0.9% on the week) is the gravitational field — a move above 4.80% on a hot PCE print or hawkish Warsh commentary would pressure equity multiples further, particularly in rate-sensitive growth. QQQ at $713.40 is the proxy for whether the NVIDIA-led AI trade can hold a bid through earnings; a miss or soft guidance Wednesday after close would test the 2.4% weekly loss as a floor, not a ceiling.

Gold at $4,681 and silver at $69.53 are the regime signal. Both rallied 7% in a single week alongside a falling dollar (DXY 98.8) — that combination says the bond market is pricing fiscal stress, not growth optimism. Watch the 2-Year and 5-Year Note auctions Tuesday and Wednesday for demand; weak bid-to-cover ratios would validate the metals move and pressure the long end further (30-year yield already at 5.276%). VIX at 15.13 is still low relative to the event density ahead — Jackson Hole weeks with a new Fed Chair historically carry wider daily ranges than the vol surface implies.

The bias

The read is defensive with a catalyst-driven break possible in either direction. The combination of softening GDP (1.5% annualised), sticky Core PCE (3.3% annual), a 51-handle on consumer sentiment, and a fresh trade-war front with Canada describes an economy losing momentum without the inflation relief that would let the Fed ease. Gold’s vertical move and the dollar’s third straight down week reinforce that interpretation. The one thing that flips the week from grind-lower to relief rally: a dovish lean from Warsh on Friday — any language suggesting the hiking cycle is complete, or that the 9-3 split tilts toward cuts, would compress the long end and pull risk assets higher fast. Until that speech, the path of least resistance favours defensives (healthcare, energy, materials) over growth and duration.