Now I have the key events. Let me write the post.

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The Week in the Indices

Small caps owned this week. The Russell 2000 jumped +4.01% to 293, its strongest weekly gain in over a month and a clear signal that the rotation into rate-sensitive, domestically-oriented names is picking up speed. The Nasdaq 100 followed at +2.31% to 721.3, buoyed by megacap tech strength and spillover enthusiasm from SpaceX’s Friday debut. The S&P 500 added +0.57% to 741.8 and the Dow gained +0.66% to 513.1 — solid but overshadowed by the action lower on the cap spectrum.

The VIX told the real story: a 17.81% weekly decline to 17.68. That’s well below the 20 fear threshold and approaching the kind of complacency zone that usually precedes either a melt-up or a sharp repricing. With the FOMC meeting landing next week, the market is betting heavily that the Fed stays put — and acting like it already knows the answer.

Sector Winners & Losers

Materials led the board at +3.06%, with copper’s +3.36% weekly gain reinforcing the cyclical growth bid. Technology posted +2.50%, driven by AI infrastructure spending and the sentiment lift from SpaceX’s IPO pulling capital into the innovation complex. Financials rose +1.99% — regional banks and insurance names continue to benefit from the steepening yield curve narrative and the broader small-cap rotation.

Consumer Discretionary (+1.51%) and Industrials (+1.15%) rounded out the winners, both classic risk-on trades. Healthcare managed a modest +0.52%. The only laggard was Energy at -0.21%, weighed down by WTI crude’s sharp -6.90% weekly slide to $84.29. The sector rotation message is clear: markets are pricing growth acceleration, not inflation protection.

Rates, Commodities & the Dollar

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped 1.08% on the week to 4.487%, while the 30-year eased to 4.975%. The move lower in long-end rates — even with CPI running at 4.2% year-over-year — reflects the market’s conviction that the Fed will hold at 3.50%-3.75% next week and that the inflation pulse is peaking, not reaccelerating.

Gold dropped -2.24% to $4,240, a textbook response to falling volatility and a market that doesn’t need the hedge. Oil’s -6.90% slide to $84.29 was the week’s sharpest commodity move, pointing to softening demand expectations despite OPEC+ supply discipline. Copper bucked the trend, rallying +3.36% to $6.474 — a vote of confidence in the global industrial cycle and AI-driven power infrastructure buildout. The DXY slipped -0.26% to 99.81, giving back ground as rate-cut expectations for later in 2026 held firm.

What Drove the Week

Three catalysts set the tone. First, the May CPI print landed on Tuesday at +0.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year — hot on the surface due to a 3.9% energy spike, but core shelter and services showed enough deceleration to keep the Fed-hold thesis intact. Markets rallied through the data rather than selling it.

Second, SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO on Friday injected genuine excitement into risk assets. The company priced at $135, opened at $150, and closed at $161.11 — a 19% first-day pop on a $75 billion raise. It was the largest IPO in history and immediately became the sixth-largest US public company by market cap, crossing $2 trillion. The debut pulled retail and institutional flows into the growth complex and gave the Nasdaq its best session of the week.

Third, the “Great Rotation” thesis gained more converts. With the Russell 2000 now up over 11% year-to-date and outpacing the S&P 500 by a wide margin, value-oriented and small-cap strategies are attracting serious capital. Headlines flagging Seth Klarman’s non-AI stock picks and the widening value-over-growth spread reinforced the theme.

Week Ahead

The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is the single biggest event on the calendar. Markets are pricing a 99%+ probability of a hold, so the reaction will hinge entirely on the dot plot and Powell’s tone on timing — any hint of a September cut would turbocharge the small-cap bid further. The Russell 2000 at 293 is the level to watch: a clean break above 300 would confirm the rotation is structural, not just a squeeze. With VIX at 17.68 and risk appetite running hot, the path of least resistance is higher — but a hawkish surprise from the dots could snap the streak fast. We’ll be tracking the setup here at Luna3.

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