Now I have the macro context. Let me write the post.

“`

The Week in the Indices

All four major indices posted strong weekly gains, led by the Nasdaq 100 at +5.09% to 723. The S&P 500 climbed +3.51% to 773.3, the Russell 2000 added +3.56% to 301.6, and the Dow rose +2.92% to 539.6. Small caps kept pace with large caps — a healthy breadth signal rather than a narrow mega-cap carry.

The VIX fell -6.82% to 14.9, slipping below the 15 line into textbook complacency. That sub-15 print tells you institutional hedging demand evaporated through the week as each earnings beat reinforced the bid. Worth noting: VIX below 15 after a +3.5% S&P week tends to precede short consolidation windows rather than sustained runs, so the read is “enjoy the tape but tighten stops.”

Sector Winners & Losers

Technology (XLK) dominated at +7.20%, nearly doubling the next-best sector. The AI earnings cycle — Palantir’s blowout quarter and Microsoft’s cloud acceleration — pulled the entire tech complex higher. Materials (XLB) followed at +4.82%, benefiting from the metals surge that defined the commodity week.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) gained +3.25% and Industrials (XLI) +2.97%, both signalling cyclical appetite. Healthcare (XLV) added +1.93% and Financials (XLF) +1.16% — solid but lagging, suggesting money rotated toward growth over value.

Energy (XLE) was the clear loser at -3.44%, dragged lower by WTI crude’s near-9% collapse. The tech-up, energy-down split is a classic AI-cycle rotation: capital flows toward compute infrastructure and away from old-economy energy. That gap (+7.20% vs -3.44%) is a 10.6-percentage-point weekly spread — one of the wider sector divergences this year.

Rates, Commodities & the Dollar

The 10-year yield fell -1.79% to 4.66% and the 30-year dipped -1.21% to 5.211%. Yields pulling back while equities rally is the soft-landing script: growth holds, but the rate path tilts lower. The curve remains inverted at the long end, though less aggressively than a month ago.

Gold was the headline at +8.70% to $4,401, with silver running even harder at +10.78% to $63.80. Copper added +2.32% to $6.585 — the industrial metal confirming the growth bid rather than pure fear hedging. When gold and copper rise together, it’s inflation-awareness plus growth, not recession positioning.

WTI crude collapsed -8.96% to $77.08, the sharpest weekly oil drop in months. Demand-side concerns — likely tied to China slowdown signals and OPEC+ production dynamics — overwhelmed any geopolitical risk premium. The DXY slipped -0.20% to 99.6 while EUR/USD firmed +0.33% to 1.156 and USD/JPY fell -1.52% to 157.7, consistent with a modest dollar-weakening trend that supports both gold and multinational earnings.

What Drove the Week

AI earnings delivered. Palantir reported Q2 revenue of $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year, with U.S. commercial revenue surging 149%. The company raised full-year U.S. commercial guidance to $3.42 billion. Microsoft’s cloud and AI segments also beat, driving a reported 16% stock gain. These two names alone pulled the Nasdaq higher by multiple percentage points.

The July jobs report dropped Friday with unemployment ticking down to 4.1% from 4.2%. Labor force participation fell to a five-year low, which muddies the bullish read — the headline rate improved partly because fewer people were looking. Still, the number gave the Fed cover to maintain its hold at 3.50-3.75% from the July 29 meeting, where the 9-3 vote (three dissenters wanted a hike) was already the most divided since 2016.

Political pressure on the Fed intensified. Reports surfaced that the White House is again attempting to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook — part of a broader effort to reshape the board. Markets largely shrugged it off this week, but institutional credibility risk around Fed independence is a slow-burn tail risk worth tracking.

Week Ahead

The tape enters next week with a strong risk-on bias — breadth held, VIX is sub-15, and the AI earnings cycle validated forward estimates. The level to watch is S&P 773: a clean hold above last week’s breakout zone would confirm the rally has legs beyond the earnings impulse. The single biggest catalyst is the July CPI print on August 12 — with gold screaming and the Fed already divided 9-3, a hot inflation number could reprice the September meeting fast. We’ll be tracking it live at Luna3.

Read next: Market Pulse · VIX Term Structure · What Is a Bond?