Now I have the context. Key drivers this week:
– **CPI**: July CPI +0.1% MoM, matching expectations — tame read
– **Hormuz standoff**: Strait of Hormuz closure dragging on, Iran demands unmet → WTI surged, XLE +7.67%
– **FOMC minutes**: July meeting released — held at 3.5-3.75%, three dissenters wanted a hike
– **SanDisk**: +35% on AI flash tech announcement + Investor Day long-term guidance
– **Super Micro**: rallied on strong Q1 guidance

Let me write the post now.

“`html

The Week in the Indices

A tame CPI print and a collapsing VIX gave equities enough cover to grind higher, but the Dow’s -0.52% weekly loss showed this wasn’t a uniform bid. The Nasdaq 100 led at +1.11%, powered by another leg in the AI storage trade (SanDisk alone ripped 35% on its Investor Day). The Russell 2000 kept pace at +1.17%, its best weekly gain in three weeks, as small-caps caught a bid from the softer inflation read. The S&P 500 added +0.40% to close at 776.3.

The VIX fell 4.36% to 14.25 — firmly in complacency territory below 15. That sub-15 print tells you the options market is pricing minimal tail risk into the September FOMC window, even as three Fed officials dissented in favor of a hike at the July meeting. Cheap protection here is worth noting, not celebrating.

Sector Winners & Losers

Energy (XLE) ran away with it — up 7.67% on the week as the Strait of Hormuz standoff showed no signs of resolution. Iran’s list of demands to reopen the waterway went unmet, and crude priced it in. XOM and CVX dragged the entire sector higher. Technology (XLK) followed at +1.09%, with the SanDisk rally and Super Micro’s raised guidance doing the heavy lifting. Healthcare (XLV) posted a quiet +1.02%, and Financials (XLF) gained +0.97% as the yield curve steepened.

On the losing side, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) dropped -1.38% — the worst sector print of the week. Higher energy costs eat into consumer wallets, and the market is pricing that pass-through. Materials (XLB) slipped -0.61%. The Dow’s underperformance maps directly to this rotation: heavy Consumer Discretionary and Industrials weighting, light Energy exposure.

Rates, Commodities & the Dollar

The long end sold off. The 10-year yield rose to 4.696% (+0.77% on the week), and the 30-year pushed to 5.265% (+1.04%). That steepening reflects two forces working in opposite directions — tame core CPI arguing for patience, but crude-driven headline inflation keeping hawkish dissenters vocal. The bond market hasn’t made up its mind, and that indecision is showing up as term premium expansion.

Gold climbed +2.10% to $4,432, acting as a dual hedge against geopolitical risk and the possibility that the Fed stays on hold too long. WTI crude jumped +5.40% to $82.4 — the Hormuz premium is now structural until a deal materializes. Copper edged up +0.55% to $6.607, a modest growth signal. The DXY was flat at 99.64 (+0.04%), stuck between a dovish CPI read and hawkish oil-driven inflation expectations.

What Drove the Week

Three catalysts set the tone. First, the July CPI report matched expectations at +0.1% month-over-month — the tamest print in months. That gave equities a one-day pop and trimmed rate-hike probabilities for September. Second, the release of July FOMC minutes showed the Committee held rates at 3.50-3.75%, but three members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) voted for a quarter-point hike. That 3-dissenter count is the highest since the current cycle began and keeps September live.

Third, the Strait of Hormuz standoff entered its second week with no resolution. Iran’s demands — lifting sanctions, ending military threats, and receiving compensation — remain unmet. The supply disruption is real: roughly 20% of global oil flows through Hormuz, and every day without a deal adds risk premium to crude and, by extension, headline inflation.

Week Ahead

The setup heading into next week is cautiously risk-on — VIX below 15, breadth improving with the Russell outperforming, and the CPI tailwind still fresh. The level to watch is S&P 500 at 780: a clean break above would mark a new weekly high and confirm the grind has legs. The single biggest catalyst is any movement on the Hormuz negotiations — a deal collapses the energy bid and flips the inflation narrative overnight, while continued stalemate keeps XLE in the driver’s seat. We’ll be tracking both scenarios at Luna3.

Read next: Market Pulse · VIX Term Structure · What Is a Bond?